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Predicting the future
Max looks into the future for DVD
By Max "crystal ball" Christoffersen
December 2000
New titles, new DVD players and new toys designed to make the home theatre experience even more exciting than the movies themselves.
And since DVD first made its way to our shores in 1997/98 the future has always been difficult to predict - who would have know that DVD would have made such an impact in Godzone?
Rental shelves overflowing with DVD, zone free players available off the shelf and prices going under the $500 mark.
I mean DVD at The Warehouse - what next?
Well here are a few observations of the next 12 months in the land of
DVD in New Zealand.
- We'll see more and more shelf space devoted to rentals at video outlets.
But the actual rental share at each store will stay much the same.
There will be major growth in the rental market with more titles; but
I suspect mainly to the same return renters: so more titles being rented
to the same people.
- There will be less sales uptakes from the early adopters as rentals
take on greater weight and they discover the dust settling on their
early rush of blood purchases - Multiplicity anyone???
The first wave of DVD enthusiasts will find the appeal of DVD is sometimes
in the viewing and not the owning. They will slow down in their purchases
and will consolidate the rental market.
- DVD will hit a ceiling as the first wave peaks and dies and the second
wave comes up against a largely indifferent mainstream market to a non-record
format.
As long as DVD is a replay format there will be a level of consumer confusion as the mainstream prefers a record/replay format not just replay. "Who wants to see a film more than once anyway??"
- Mainstreamers will increasingly think letterbox sucks.
No other debate causes as much angst as the letterbox 'Black Bars' issue. To many people new to letterbox it is an acquired taste they have yet to acquire and the sight of a 'full' 4:3 screen has greater aesthetic appeal than viewing the original theatrical aspect ratio.
- More coding protection will appear causing major problems
The Patriot has caused problems for some players and there will be an increased emphasis on protecting distribution of DVD as Hollywood realises the cat is out of the bag big time.
- More DVD live music will be released
The future of DVD is in a format than can stand multiple replays and films sadly isn't it. Few enthusiasts actually replay entire films from beginning to end (they tend to replay favourite scenes not complete films). The future is in multi channel audio with video - Radio with Pictures in 2001, only in multi-channel!
- More TOTAL crap will appear
What more can be said? With the increasing appeal of DVD to the mainstream markets the dross that is typical of the lowest common denominator will appear in their hundreds.
- TV's will be branded "DVD Ready'
They did it with LaserDisc - they'll state the obvious with DVD too!
- Progressive scan will be viewed by hundreds not thousands.
High quality line doubled or de-interlaced video (progressive) is the best video performance image out of the box; the catch is you need a TV capable of viewing high resolution images. Few have it; even fewer will upgrade specifically for it.
- More lasers will die on cheap players
They have to cut the cost somewhere and a good call is the fine tracking required of DVD will begin to go off on some 'entry-level' players.
- More news sites and dedicated home theatre forums will spring up showing off high quality home theatre systems and providing a forum for misinformation
There is a lot of information on the news sites. Unfortunately a lot of it is provided by people with little experience and little hands-on knowledge. Read with care: tread with caution and try out the suggestions made for yourself. Some of the sites do have some very well constructed home theatre systems built by professional for well paid home theatre enthusiasts.
- More people will be interested in big screen projection and projector images will get bigger and more powerful while the battle between CRT and other technologies begins to favour the other technologies.
Projection is the key to a truly immersive home theatre experience. The enthusiast and the novice both want it. CRT has been king for years and as a mature technology is able to beat off some of the new projection technologies, but not for that much longer.
- More and more rumours of cheap DVD recorders will create market dissonance as the mainstreamers wait for the next big thing.
When DVD recorders arrive - that is the way to the future. Uptake will be slow, as VHS works well for almost everyone viewing TV programmes; but the novelty of digital recording has huge appeal.
- PC's will become increasingly a part of DVD/audio systems.
More and more home theatre enthusiasts are using PCs in home theatre because they offer a level of cheap DVD drives, image processing capability and integration between DVD ROM software on DVD and the film itself. There will be increased integration between the home theatre and computer markets (techie video technologies for tech-heads).
- Tactile sound will become an expected part of the home theatre experience
The future of home theatre is tactile: bottom end extension you feel. If you dabble in the share market put your money into companies specialising in tactile transducer products.
- DVD players will go under the $400 NZ mark and old DVDs (Multiplicity anyone?) will sell at $19.95
Look for genuine budget priced players coming soon (if we can have sub-$600 machines at 39 cents to the greenback what can we get at 55 cents?)
- Sony PS II will bring a lot of gamers into the film market segment causing 'snowboarder vs skier' type friction.
The traditional home theatre market has comprised audio enthusiasts who also enjoy film: but the market will spread as Playstation brings gamers who have had more interest in games than film into the market. Watch for high rentals figures of DVDs that look like games.
- Snapper cases will still be around.
And more and more strange devices will be designed to hold DVDs - seen the Gladiator case recently?
- People will still think 7.1 actually means something.
The formats will continue to fall apart as the nomenclature continues to be misused and abused. There is no 7.1 format. There is 5.1, 5.1 with a matrixed centre rear channel (Dolby/THX ES and DTS EX) and DTS 6.1 EX.
- Pan and Scan vs Letterbox debates will continue.
Enough said.
- HDTV will create further market dissonance as people ask is DVD HDTV ready?
The promise of high definition TV will begin to create some market confusion particularly in the US. Many in the mainstream will choose to 'wait for everything to settle down'.
- More old films will be released in '10.1' type surround formats that sound worse than the mono original soundtrack they were actually screened in (Rocky Horror anyone??)
As the surround sound appeal grabs new DVD viewers the original soundtrack will be replaced by new formats that the original film was never screened in. Call it audio colorisation.
- There will be no DVD of New Zealand's great 2001 sporting achievements to buy.
Well we live in hope...
- Paul Holmes will release his first DVD.
There is no stopping the media mogul going totally digital. Where there is a market there is a way.
- LaserDisc will make a comeback as large size turntables for Samsung microwaves.
Well there has to be a use for these things somewhere...
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